Rising Housing Costs Linked to Declining U.S. Birth Rates, Study Finds
A new study suggests that escalating housing prices since 1990 have significantly contributed to the drop in U.S. fertility rates. Benjamin Couillard, an economics researcher at the University of Toronto, estimates that without these cost increases, there WOULD have been 13 million more births over the past three decades—an 11% boost to total births during that period.
The total fertility rate has plummeted from 2.08 births per woman in 1990 to just 1.62 in 2023, falling below population replacement levels. Couillard's analysis indicates the recent decade's steep fertility decline would have been 51% less severe absent housing market pressures.
The paper highlights how shrinking affordability of family-sized homes creates structural barriers to parenthood. While economists debate multiple factors influencing birth rates, the research underscores housing policy as a potential lever for demographic change.
